Why Vijay won

The easy answer is that Tamil voters were captivated by his film persona. What is harder is to understand the objective conditions that led to his rise. Cinema remains a powerful force in Tamil politics—there is no doubt about that. But look at what happened to Rajini, who announced his political entry and then immediately took a U-turn. Rajini, who was the biggest star in TN, never articulated his political framework. Vijayakanth formed a party in the Dravidian spectrum and made an impact, but eventually faded. AS for Kamal, the primary beneficiary of his political entry was Kamal himself. Even though Vijay formed his political party only in 2024, he had been preparing the ground for for years--not just through his movies but also by building a network of supporters and social welfare activities.

He carefully positioned himself within Tamil identity politics, casting himself as a critic of both mainstream fronts. In 2009, during final phase of the Sri Lankan civil war, when Tamil were being butchered by the army, he observed a fast in Chennai in solidarity with Sri Lankan Tamils. He supported the protest against the ban of Jallikkattu, opposed NEET and the three-language formula. In 2018, he visited the families of those killed by police in Thoothukudi during the anti-Sterlite protests (which was really a dark chapter of the AIADMK government). After he formed the TVK, he called the DMK its political rival and the BJP ideological rival. None of this offers a solid ideological commitment. But this provides a framework — Tamil identity politics, social justice message, anti-corruption crusade and a new contract, particularly for the youth — which, along with his star power (he is the biggest star in TN) made him especially appealing to the public. But that’s not everything.

TN politics was also in a transformational phase, after Karunanidhi and Jayalalithaa, who dominated the state for decades, departed. DMK managed the transition well with Stalin taking the reins of the party and leading it to victory in 2021, whereas the AIADK fell into disarray. Edappadi eventually emerged as the leader of the party, but the split between him and OPS, and the split of Dhinakaran and then the continued presence of Sasikala all weakened the party. The AIADMK’s decline left a vacuum in the state, which was what the BJP tried to fill. Many here say the BJP, which won just one seat, was effectively running the AIADMK alliance. Vijay seemed to have exploited both the decline of the AIADMK and the anti-incumbency sentiments towards the DMK (there is genuine anger towards corruption and the family rule) with his populist, anti-establishment message. Actually the space the BJP wants to occupy is gone. I think the DMK will stay and fight back, the AIADMK will have to fight for survival.

This doesn’t mean Vijay is going to be a saviour. The party is not constituted with clear ideological moorings. He remains a larger-than-life figure, a cult, something that’s not good for a healthy democracy. He is politically and administratively inexperienced, and it’s unclear what checks and balances will operate around him. It also remains to be seen whether he will give substantive shape to the political framework he has articulated, or evolve into a political shape-shifter.